Ag Market Commentary

Midday trading through the Tuesday session has futures 3 to 3 3/4 cents lower. The national average cash corn price from cmdtyView is $3.33 3/4 per bushel. January corn futures posted a contract high on the Dalian Grains Exchange, closing 9/14 at 2,419 yuan/MT (~ $9.06/bu). Private exporters sold 120k MT of corn to unknown with 2020/21 delivery per the USDA daily reporting system. Corn in IL/IN/OH was even or behind on maturity, but across the WCB the very dry August had corn maturing faster than average. In IA corn was 45% mature, which was 75% more than the average 26%. In MN corn was maturing more than twice the average pace @ 45% compared to 17%. The driest August on record for NE had corn 78% ahead of average maturity, with 48% compared to the average 27%. Nationally, corn was 9 ppts ahead of average with 41% mature. Corn harvest is now 5% complete, matching the average national pace. National corn condition ratings were down three points on the Brugler500 index to 354. Conditions in North Dakota fell 22 points to 362 due to frost and freeze damage to late planted corn.

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.65 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.75 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $3.81 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 21 Corn is at $3.84 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans are down by as much as 9 cents today. Losses for the deferred contracts dwindle to just 1 1/4 cent/bu. The national average cash bean price from cmdtyView is $9.35/bu. Soymeal futures are down another $2.30 to $2.50 so far. Midday bean oil trading has futures 14 to 16 points in the red. January No. 2 soybean futures in China closed at 4,486 yuan/MT (~ $18/bu) on Sept 14. USDA announced two soybean export sales this morning: 132k MT to China, and another 132k MT to unknown. The weekly Crop Progress report had 37% of beans dropping leaves, up from 20% LW and 6% ahead of the 5-yr average. Bean condition ratings were stable on the week, save for a 29 point drop in ND on frost damage. National bean ratings scored a 362 on the Brugler500 index which was 3 points lower. NOPA crushers reported processing 165.06 mbu of beans in August. That was down 2% yr/yr and below the trade average guess of 169.47 mbu. That yielded 1.915b lbs of oil and left August 31 BO stocks at 1.519 billion lbs. The trade was looking for 1.515 billion lbs of bean oil stocks. Safras and Mercado estimate Brazil’s new crop bean exports at 82.5 MMT; even with last year but down 500k from the August estimate.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $9.90 1/2, down 9 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $9.95 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $9.96, down 6 cents,

May 21 Soybeans are at $9.97, down 5 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal is at $314.10, down $2.90

Oct 20 Soybean Oil is at $34.02, down $0.21

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Tuesday wheat trading has meant double digit losses for SRW futures. KC futures are down as much as 9 1/4 cents so far. Wheat trading on MGE has spring wheat 3 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents lower. The weekly crop progress report showed 8% of 2020/21 spring wheat was still standing in the field as of Sunday. Harvest progressed 10% on the week and is now running even with the average pace. Winter wheat planting progressed 5% on the week to 10% complete. The average planting pace for this date would be 8%. Official E.U. data showed MYTD exports outside of the EU bloc totaled 3.57 MMT of soft wheat through Sept 13. That is 42% behind 19/20’s pace. France’s Farm Ministry lowered their production estimate 200k MT from Aug to 29.5 MMT. Japan’s MOA issued a wheat tender, seeking 105k MT – with 56,765 MT U.S. specific. Ethiopia issued an international tender for 200k MT of wheat. South Korea seeks 38k MT of optional origin wheat.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.35 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.64 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.23 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Fat cattle futures are 7 to 62 cents lower in the front months at midday. Feeder cattle, on the other hand, are trading with midday gains of a dime to 65 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for September 11 was back up by 48 cents to $141.47. Cash cattle trading has yet to establish for the week. The FCE has only 473 head of cattle listed so far for tomorrow’s auction. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the AM report on Tuesday, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.65. Choice boxes fell back $0.50, while Select boxes were 30 cents higher at $208.06. The start to the week’s slaughter is 120,000 head. That is 1,000 above the Monday from last year.

Oct 20 Cattle are at $106.575, down $0.300,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $111.075, down $0.625,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $115.525, down $0.175,

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $141.600, up $0.100

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $143.250, up $0.650

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $143.500, up $0.300

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After closing with triple digit losses on Monday, front month lean hog futures are $0.20 to $1.30 higher at midday. December hogs are still in the red, adding 2 cents to the downside. The CME Lean Hog Index for September 11 was another $1.27 higher to $64.55. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was delayed this AM, Monday’s afternoon quote was $4.94 higher to $57.84. China’s Ag ministry reported August 2020 pig herd is up 31.3% yr/yr, and the sow herd is up 37% yr/yr. China issued a state reserve pork auction notice, the state will sell 20k MT of pork on Sept 18. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value bounced $6.64 higher to $86.35 in the AM update. All of the primal cuts increased, led by bellies which were $15.63 cwt. higher to $150.50. USDA estimates Monday’s FI hog slaughter at 486,000 head, down 4,000 from the same Monday LY.

Oct 20 Hogs are at $66.225, up $1.600,

Dec 20 Hogs are at $63.550, down $0.025

Feb 21 Hogs are at $69.000, up $0.250

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month cotton futures are giving back 53 to 66 points in the front months. October contracts are down triple digits on limited OI. Cotton progress from the weekly report had 47% of bolls open, which was 2 points ahead of average. Cotton harvest was 6% complete as of the 13th. The 5-yr average is 8%. Harvest in TX was reported at 13% complete, lagging their 5-yr average by 1 percentage point. Cotton condition ratings improved 4 points on the Brugler500 index to 320. Last week’s sales on The Seam were 17,988 bales at a wtd average price of 58.16 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for Sept 14 stayed at 70.50 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 49.77 cents/lb, through Thursday. The LDP is 2.23 cents through Thursday.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 64.37, down 109 points,

Oct 20 Cotton is at 65.96, down 66 points,

Mar 21 Cotton is at 66.89, down 57 points

May 21 Cotton is at 67.53, down 64 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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