• Using seasonal analysis, we see some of the key markets in the Grains sector change direction early in the fall quarter (September-October-November). 

• December corn futures show a counter intuitive uptrend despite harvest gaining momentum and moving to its end over the coming months. 

• Similarly, the National SRW Wheat Index shows a tendency to trend up through at least October, but will be tested by this year's bearish fundamentals. 

Welcome to the first trading day of meteorological fall. If you are one who celebrates the turning of the season with pumpkin spice anything and everything, you’ve been waiting for the end of the Dog Days of Summer with great anticipation. (I know others have skipped fall altogether and gone straight to Christmas music. But these folks likely have holiday tunes playing year-round.) 

Now that we are officially in meteorological fall (September-October-November), let’s take a look at what some of our key markets in the Grains sector do over the next three months by using seasonal indexes. Recall I like to use indexes rather than flat price, showing me the normal percent change (distance element) over a certain period of time (time element). Today I’ll be focusing on December Corn futures, November Soybean futures and the National Soybean Index (national average cash price), and the National SRW Wheat Index. 

As usual, I’ll start with December corn (ZCZ25). You’ll recall from previous analysis that Dec corn tends to post a low weekly close the fourth week of August. This time around, Dec25 is showing a low weekly close of $4.0525 from the third week of August. If we apply the Horseshoe Proximity we can say close is close enough. We are also dealing with averages, and this year’s low looks to be in the ballpark. From there, December corn tends to rally through the end of November.

• September: Dec corn tends to gain
  • 3% based on its 5-year index
  • 1% based on its 10-year index
  • Putting the target for the last weekly close of September between $4.09 (10-year) and $4.17
  • Keep in mind Dec25 closed last Friday at $4.2025, already fulfilling the distance element of its seasonal tendency, ahead of the usual time
• October: Dec corn tends to add
  • another 3% to its September gain (both 5-year and 10-year indexes)
  • Putting the target for the last weekly close of October between $4.21 (10-year) and $4.30 (5-year)
  • Or $4.20 and $4.30, based on corn’s characteristic Round Number Reliance
• November: The Dec corn contract tends to
  • add 1% (5-year index)
  • lose 1% (10-year index)
  • From the last weekly close of October through the last weekly close of November

A couple things to keep in mind:

• Dec corn’s US government harvest insurance price is calculated during October
  • Average daily closes of Dec corn futures
• Dec corn goes into delivery the last trading day of November

Next up in the batting order (yes, September is still baseball season) is the November soybean futures contract (ZSX25).

November soybeans do not have as clear of a seasonal pattern during the fall season (September-October-November) as December corn futures. Again, we have to keep in mind a couple important factors:

• November futures go into delivery at the end of October
• Speaking of October, the US government harvest insurance price is calculated during the month
  • The average daily close by the November futures contract

With that out of the say, let’s look at the seasonal patterns of Nov soybeans, such as they are:

• September
  • The Nov contract moves sideways for the most part
    • The 5-year index shows a 1% loss from the last weekly close of August through the last weekly close of September
    • The 10-year index (blue line) is unchanged during that same time frame
  • Nov25 closed last Friday, the last weekly close of August, at $10.5450
• October
  • Nov futures again tend to move sideways from the end of September through Halloween
• November
  • To look at the soybean market beyond November futures going into delivery we can use the National Soybean Index
  • The Index tends post a low weekly close the first week of October
  • Gaining between 5% (10-year index) and 6% (5-year index) through the end of November
  • The Index was priced at $9.8275 at the end of August and near $9.6550 to start this week
  • The Index tends to stay in an uptrend through the first weekly close of May, gaining a total of 12% (10-year) to 17% (5-year) from the October low weekly close

Meanwhile, the National SRW Wheat Index ($CSWI) tends to post a low weekly close the fourth week of August, or the next to last week. Seasonally, the Index tends to lose between 13% (10-year index) and 16% (5-year index) from its normal high weekly close the second week of June through its normal seasonal low. The 2025 move saw the Index drop 14% from its high weekly close of $5.19 the third week of June through the low weekly close of $4.48 on Friday, August 22, the fourth weekly close of the month. From a Seasonal Analysis point of view, the Index fulfilled both the time and space elements of its normal pattern.

What comes next, seasonally?

From the fourth weekly close of August (this week) through the fourth weekly close of May the Index tends to gain between 13% (10-year) and 19% (5-year). Based on the low weekly close of $4.48 the upside target range for a high weekly close is between $5.06 and $5.33.

Keep in mind the total cost of carry from late August through late May is roughly 92.5 cents meaning it would most likely not be profitable to hold cash bushels in commercial storage during the seasonal rally.

But what about the fall season (September-October-November) specifically? 

• September
  • The National SRW Index tends to stay flat (10-year study) to gain 4% (10-year) from its low weekly close in late August through the last weekly close of September 3, 2025
• October           
  • The Index adds 4% to from the last weekly close of September through the end of October
• November
  • The Index flattens moves sideways through November
• The bottom line is the National SRW Index tends to gain between 5% and 8% during the fall quarter
  • Based on the low weekly close of $4.48, the target range for the last weekly close of October would be between $4.70 and $4.84
  • The National SRW Wheat Index was priced at $4.56 on Tuesday, September 2

It should be a fun fall.